The first quarter of 2012 we saw a very strong bull run in major indexes. As the performance chart shows, the Greed and Fear indicator could not keep up. On a few occasions when the S&P 500 seemed to top out, the indicator went short, but contrary to expectations at that point, the S&P 500 was able to recover very quickly. Luckily the indicator did not hold on to its opinion too long, but the gap with the benchmark widened.
These situations have hit the performance hard. As explained in how the performance is measured, a strong bull market is difficult for the indicator to keep up. Is the indicator of any use in trading? So far this year: yes. The way the performance is measured leaves room for good intraday entries and exits. Also, not going short in strong bull market (or long in a bear market) has proven to be a very favorable choice. My personal trading journal shows a net result of 113 points on the S&P futures / E-Mini. The indicator helped me a great deal in reaching that goal.