Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego.

know it all1Many traders read all the news, rumors, gossips they can get their hands on. And there's always more to read. Then they start convincing each other on chat forums that the market has to go in a certain direction based on that news. In the end they all agree, but we know what happens with crowd consensus.... it's not going to happen.

These traders have got it all figured out and know perfectly well what is going to happen with the economy. To those traders I would like to say: No you don't. You are not a chief economist and even if you believe you are, you don't know what the impact on the financial markets will be. A strong believe that the market has to go a certain direction based on the news makes it difficult to adapt if that scenario does not work out. For instance, some traders keep shorting the markets for months because they believe it has to come down soon. "It's just a dead cat bounce, a sucker rally." they claim. I don't care what you call it, take it for what it is: it's going up now.

A trader should try to limit the number of news sources he's following. Look for quality not quantity, so many sources don't have their facts right. Don't get caught up in their very convincing stories. Also it's probably better not to take part in chat forums that are strongly biased (bullish/bearish). In the end, it's inevitable that this one-sided view will influence your capability to recognize good opportunities in the market. Your ego may like the constant confirmation by other traders, your trading account does not.

In history it has always been that people who declare doom and gloom attract a large crowd. Somehow, we find it more fascinating to be informed about all the bad things that could happen to us and we're less interested in all the positive opportunities. This probably is our ancestor lizard brain that's trying to protect us, to escape from danger (more lizard news in recommended reading below). As proven many times, we hate bad things much more than we like equally good things. To put it simple, the good feeling of finding 10 dollar does not nearly compensate the bad feeling of losing 10 dollar.

Recommended reading:

Make sure you find twice the amount you lost: science of irrationality

No really, you're not a chief economist. And even you believe you are, how will the market react?  : bad economic data but markets are going up