After part 1 and part 2 of the 'Market gurus and their predictions'-series, there's now part 3.
| Claim that was made | Date | Validated as | Link to original post | Link pdf copy | Validation date |
| Sell tech! Morgan Stanley's warning to investor. Morgan Stanley is warning that an emerging trade war will probably rain on the tech parade. The investment bank urged clients in a report published Sunday to sell the tech sector, downgrading the space to "underweight". "These stocks have rarely, if ever, been so over-loved and over-owned," wrote Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist. Let's look at this 6 months and validate then. |
Jul 9th, 2018 | Wilson: true. Technology ETF, XLK made a new high but then dropped significantly. | Sell tech! Morgan Stanley's warning to investor | Jan 7th, 2019 | |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday had its best day in about a month, but Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners says investors shouldn’t be lulled into a false sense of security amid intensifying clashes over global trade. “Markets are crazy to ignore the risks and consequences of a tradewar. This rally in stocks is the last hurrah! Investors should sell now, speculators may do better in August” (source: MarketWatch) Let's look at this 6 months and validate then. |
Jul 10th, 2018 | Minerd: let's call this true. As with the next claim below, the market continued on higher, but then dropped. | "This rally in stocks is a last hurrah!" warns Guggenheim’s Minerd | Jan 7th, 2019 | |
| Prominent market technician Ralph Acampora is growing increasingly concerned about recent moves in the stock market. Acampora, a pioneer in the field of chart-based trading, said that the primary utility of reading charts is a “risk management” function, and what he’s observing currently suggests that the bullish dynamic in equities may be unraveling. Let's look at this in 6 months and validate then. |
Jun 28th, 2018 | Acampora: unclear. From June on,The S&P 500 first rose 200 points, then dropped 400 to the end of December. | ‘Godfather’ of chart analysis says stock market now dealing with ‘uglier action’ | Jan 7th, 2019 | |
| Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley Institutional Securities: "The market melt-up is over. [...] We think January was the top for sentiment, if not prices, for the year. With volatility moving higher we think it will be difficult for institutional clients to gross up to or beyond the January peaks" (source: Marketwatch) | Mar 20th, 2018 | Wilson: false. A new high was made in Sep | The stock market meltup is over | Jan 7th, 2019 | |
| David Tice, who made his name running a bear fund, is warning investors the February correction is just a foreshock. Tice believes the big one hasn't hit yet. He sees another rupture — or two or three — this year. By the end of 2018, the stock market could be 20 to 25 percent lower than current levels, Tice says. (source: CNBC) On Feb 22nd, the S&P 500 closed at 2703. A drop of 20-25% means a years end between 2162 and 2027. | Feb 22, 2018 | Tice: false. On Dec 31st the S&P 500 closed at 2506. The year low was at 2351. | The big one hasn't hit yet — why this bear sees stocks rupturing | Jan 7th, 2019 | |
| The fever has yet to break on Wall Street, says Craig Johnson, senior technical strategist at Piper Jaffray. Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantinco Global, remains bullish on equities and recommends that nervous investors focus on the source of the sell-off. (source: CNBC) |
Feb 9th, 2018 | Johnson: false (made the call on the exact bottom). Sanchez: true | Stocks tracking for the worst week since 2008, and it’s going to get worse, says technician | Jun 20th, 2018 | |
| Bill Baruch, president at Blue Line Futures has a positive outlook at current levels. According to Baruch, gold can break out above 1400 in the next 3-6 months. (source: CNBC) | Feb 9th, 2018 | Baruch: false | Why gold could soon get a boost from the wild market volatility | Jun 20th, 2018 | |
| Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR, suspects the market will find a bottom in a couple of days after the sharp correction early February 2018. "Right now, we're in that selling crescendo," he added. "People will sit back and say, 'Wait a minute, we've done too much, too fast to the downside,' and buyers come back." (source: CNBC) | Feb 6th, 2018 | Hogan: true | The 'selling crescendo' in stock market could end by Wednesday, says bull Art Hogan | Jun 20th, 2018 | |
| Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Private Wealth Solutions, is expecting a 10 to 15% correction very soon. "Sentiment is bordering on the euphoric state. When investors think they can't get into trouble, they usually do". By no means is this correction the start of a bear market, but rather an excellent buying opportunity. The year 2018 will end higher than it started. (source: CNBC) | Jan 11th, 2018 | Wien: false. From that date it first went up 4%, then down 7% | A 10 to 15% stock market correction is virtually unavoidable, Blackstone's Byron Wien warns | Oct 2nd, 2018 | |
| Steve Chiavarone, portfolio manager at Federated Investors, expects the S&P 500 to hit 3000 by the end of 2018 (source:CNBC) | Dec 18, 2017 | Chiavarons: false, but very close | Bull market could have the S&P up another 11% next year to reach 3000. | Jan 7th, 2019 |